{"id":1728,"date":"2024-12-11T04:12:22","date_gmt":"2024-12-10T22:42:22","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ainews.prativad.com\/index.php\/fyodor-lukyanov-after-syria-this-is-the-role-russia-should-embrace\/"},"modified":"2024-12-11T04:12:22","modified_gmt":"2024-12-10T22:42:22","slug":"fyodor-lukyanov-after-syria-this-is-the-role-russia-should-embrace","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ainews.prativad.com\/index.php\/fyodor-lukyanov-after-syria-this-is-the-role-russia-should-embrace\/","title":{"rendered":"Fyodor Lukyanov: After Syria, this is the role Russia should embrace"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/div>

The era of great-power dominance is fading \u2014 Moscow\u2019s future lies in mastering regional diplomacy.<\/strong><\/p>\n

In 2015, when the Russian armed forces launched a military operation in Syria, it marked a turning point in the post-Soviet era. The collapse of the USSR had caused a dramatic decline in Russia\u2019s international standing. For two and a half decades after 1991, Moscow worked to regain lost status, prestige, and influence on the world stage.<\/p>\n

Syria symbolized the culmination of that process: Russia\u2019s first decisive intervention beyond its immediate post-Soviet neighborhood in one of the world\u2019s central conflicts.<\/p>\n

The new Russia had acted militarily before, but only within its former Soviet sphere. This presumably led then-US President Barack Obama to dismiss the country as a \u201cregional power.\u201d<\/em> The Syrian intervention shattered that perception. By decisively altering the course of its civil war, Moscow demonstrated its ability to influence major global crises beyond its immediate borders.<\/p>\n

\n Read more<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

\n \"RT\"
Fyodor Lukyanov: How likely is a nuclear exchange over Ukraine?<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/blockquote>\n

The Fall of Assad and Its Implications<\/strong><\/strong><\/h3>\n

The recent fall of the Assad government, which survived nine years ago only thanks to Russia\u2019s intervention, marks another significant turning point. Analysts will dissect the causes of Assad\u2019s downfall, but the critical question for the Kremlin is what this means for its broader geopolitical strategy.<\/p>\n

\n
\n People wave guns in the air, as they gather to celebrate the fall of the Syrian regime in Umayyad Square on December 8, 2024 in Damascus, Syria. \u00a9 Ali Haj Suleiman \/ Getty Images\n


\n <\/span>
\n <\/p><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Russia\u2019s Middle East engagement wasn\u2019t just symbolic\u2014it had practical outcomes. Moscow\u2019s military success weakened the Islamic State (with the US acting in parallel) while boosting Russia\u2019s regional stature. Key Middle Eastern powers\u2014Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Iran, and even Israel\u2014came to recognize Russia as a key power broker. The formation of OPEC+ was in part facilitated by Riyadh\u2019s newfound interest in cooperating with Moscow. Even amid complex rivalries, Russia\u2019s influence became undeniable.<\/p>\n

This occurred against a backdrop of increasingly erratic US Middle East policy and diminishing Western European involvement. As the global order fractured, Russia\u2019s participation in shaping the region reinforced its place at the table of global powers\u2014or so it seemed.<\/p>\n\n

Shifting Global Dynamics<\/strong><\/strong><\/h3>\n

However, by the time Russia reached its post-Soviet peak, the international landscape had already shifted. The post-Cold War model, where fixed great-power status appeared attainable, disintegrated into a world of shifting alliances and situational partnerships.<\/p>\n

\n Read more<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

\n \"Vladimir
Fyodor Lukyanov: Here\u2019s why this weekend\u2019s Ukraine \u2018peace conference\u2019 is a sham<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/blockquote>\n

Today\u2019s international system is shaped by transactional interests. Every country now prioritizes its immediate national concerns, with limited regard for broader, long-term alliances. This has led to a form of regionalization where countries closest to a crisis not only have the greatest stake in resolving it but also the best chance of doing so.<\/p>\n

Russia\u2019s reduced involvement in Syria is an example of this shift. Preoccupied with the war in Ukraine and attached to a weakened ally in Damascus, Moscow lost much of its strategic flexibility. Regional players like Iran, Turkey, and Israel have since taken the lead in reshaping the Middle East\u2019s political map, with external powers playing mostly supportive roles.<\/p>\n\n

Lessons for Russia<\/strong>\u2019<\/strong>s Future Strategy<\/strong><\/strong><\/h3>\n

The Syrian conflict underscores the growing importance of regional actors in shaping global events. The rapid resolution of its civil war involved far less outside intervention than earlier stages of the conflict. While foreign powers like Russia and the US played significant roles early on, the latest developments were driven primarily by local players.<\/p>\n

\n
\n Russian President Vladimir Putin presents a Gold Star medal to Hero of Russia Major Sergei Selivanov at the Kremlin in Moscow, December 9, 2024. \u00a9 Sputnik \/ Alexander Kazakov\n


\n <\/span>
\n <\/p><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Russia\u2019s inability to maintain its earlier influence highlights a critical lesson: in today\u2019s fluid world order, securing long-term gains through military success alone is nearly impossible. Agility and the ability to recalibrate quickly are essential. The US learned this the hard way in the 2000s and 2010s. Russia faces a similar dilemma now.<\/p>\n

With limited resources and competing priorities, Russia must rethink its Middle East strategy. If a withdrawal from the key base in Tartus becomes unavoidable, Moscow must ensure that it happens smoothly, leveraging its established ties with all regional players\u2014from Israel and Turkey to the Gulf states and even Syria\u2019s new rulers.<\/p>\n\n

A Return to Realpolitik<\/strong><\/strong><\/h3>\n

The collapse of the Syrian state is undeniably a setback for Moscow, which used its military presence there to expand its influence across the Middle East and into Africa. However, unlike Iran, Russia retains the option to adjust its commitments and reposition itself strategically. That\u2019s the benefit of being an outside participant. The Kremlin can leave the region, but Tehran cannot.<\/p>\n

\n Read more<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

\n \"People
Why did Syria fall so fast and what happens next?<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/blockquote>\n

Moscow\u2019s next move should involve recalibrating its relationships in the Middle East while maintaining its reputation as an independent, pragmatic actor. The US may seek to push Russia out of the region entirely, but Washington\u2019s own reluctance to engage directly gives Moscow room to maneuver.<\/p>\n\n

Focus on Ukraine, Not Prestige<\/strong><\/strong><\/h3>\n

Most importantly, the symbolic quest to restore Russia\u2019s great-power status\u2014a key motivation behind the 2015 Syrian operation\u2014is now obsolete. The only priority that matters is concluding the Ukraine conflict on favorable terms. Unlike in Syria, where Russia can pull back if needed, Ukraine represents an existential challenge. It is a war that Moscow cannot afford to lose.<\/p>\n

This is the critical distinction: in the Middle East, the Kremlin has room to retreat and regroup. In Ukraine, there is no such option. The conflict there is central to Russia\u2019s long-term security and global standing.<\/p>\n

\n
\n FILE PHOTO: A Russian serviceman stands guard next to a BM-27 9K57 Uragan multiple launch rocket system. \/ Sputnik\n


\n <\/span>
\n <\/p><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n

Conclusion: Regional Power Revisited<\/strong><\/strong><\/h3>\n

When Obama dismissed Russia as a \u201cregional power\u201d<\/em> nearly a decade ago, the term was meant as a slight. But in today\u2019s fractured world, being a capable regional power is perhaps the only sustainable form of influence. The era of undisputed global powers is fading. Countries that can assert dominance in their immediate neighborhoods, while managing global ambitions sparingly, are far better positioned to survive and thrive.<\/p>\n

Russia must now consolidate its role as a dominant regional power while staying engaged in strategically critical areas like the Middle East\u2014but only when doing so supports its core national interests. In a world increasingly defined by pragmatic, limited engagements, the ability to step back, recalibrate, and reengage will matter more than symbolic gestures of great-power status. In that sense, Obama\u2019s assessment seems less like an insult today\u2014and more like a roadmap for survival in a turbulent world.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The next chapter for Moscow is not about prestige but existential concerns \u2013 starting with Ukraine. 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